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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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